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The Ophthalmologist / Issues / 2025 / December / The Predictability Paradox: Why Even Busy Clinics Struggle With the "Chop" and How to Flatten It
Business and Entrepreneurship Opinions Insights

The Predictability Paradox: Why Even Busy Clinics Struggle With the "Chop" and How to Flatten It

What does your Growth Curve look like? Four patterns every self-pay practice owner must recognize

By Rod Solar 12/16/2025 4 min read

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When I meet a new founder, I start with a simple question. I show them an image, the one you see below, and I ask:

“Which of these four growth curves best describes your practice right now?”



Let’s break it down.

The Spike: one-hit wonder

First up, the Spike.

You get a huge win. Maybe it’s a publicity campaign that worked or a referral burst from a grand opening. Then – nothing. Flatline. You feel like you had it, and then it slipped away. This is the most painful curve for founders. You’ve tasted success, but now you’re stuck looking at an empty calendar, wondering if it’ll ever come back. That hurts. The Spike means you don’t have a repeatable way to win. It’s all or nothing.

The Chop: unpredictable sales

Next is the Chop. Sales are all over the place. Up, down, up, down.

You’re never sure what next month will bring. I see this in practices that try “Random Acts of Marketing.” A new tactic here. A new promo there. A new social push, maybe a new ad campaign. But there’s no system. The only thing you can predict is that it’ll change again. Living in the Chop is stressful. You ride the rollercoaster every month. This is the pattern I see most often.

The Flatline: stalled growth

Then comes the Flatline.

You’re stable, but you’re not moving up. Maybe growth used to be faster. Now it’s just… stuck. You might think it’s safe. It’s not. Flatlines don’t last. In self-pay, standing still means you’re losing ground. Prospective patients find new practices. Competitors get aggressive. Costs go up. You feel the pressure. Worst of all, you might run out of ideas or budget. Flatlines can slip into decline before you know it.

The Ramp: scalable growth

Now, the good one: the Ramp.

This is where every practice wants to be. Sales go up month after month, year after year.

Growth compounds. This is scalable, predictable, steady. The Ramp means you have a working growth engine – a system that brings in new patients, turns them into customers, and keeps them happy. This is not luck. This is design.

So I ask: “Where are you – A, B, C, or D?”

If you answered anything other than “D,” you’re in the right place.

And I have one more question for you:

Are you open to some honest, genuine feedback about where you're at right now?

I know, you probably think the reason you’re stuck is that one big problem – maybe it’s that out-of-date website, no social media presence, high no-shows, or low case values.

And you’re probably hoping the fix is a new trick – a new website, a shiny new social channel, a clever promotion, the next big thing your competitor just did.

You’re not alone. That’s what most founders think.

But I want to challenge that.

Here's the real cycle I see

You miss your goals.

→ You panic.

→ You chase shiny objects.

→ You practice random acts of marketing.

→ You burn time, money, and energy.

→ You miss more goals.

→ You fall further behind.

If this keeps going, you start to flatline – or worse, spiral down.

New tactics aren’t the fix. Wouldn’t you agree?

Let's get real

The solution is not more random tactics, not new promos, new tech, new service launches, or new ad channels.

That’s all just noise.

The answer?

Do more of what’s already working - and do it better, faster, and at scale.

Systemize your best moves. Automate your growth so it runs even when you’re not looking.

Build a flywheel – a set of systems and assets that make new patient flow predictable, repeatable, and scalable.

This is the Growth Flywheel

A Growth Flywheel is not a single campaign. It’s a stack of your proven marketing assets, working together, that turn cold prospects into happy, paying patients - over and over.

It systemizes your customer acquisition. It brings in new business on demand. It helps you spot the bottlenecks, double down on what’s working, and drop what isn’t.

Here’s the key: Systemize first. Scale second.

Get your Growth Flywheel spinning before you start layering on new channels or tactics.

Otherwise, you just add more noise, not more growth.

When I work with practices, this is always the first step.

We figure out what’s working, systemize the core offer, nail the lead gen, automate follow-up, track conversion rates, and lock in your best repeat plays.

Once the flywheel is spinning, you can layer in accelerators: new channels, new promos, more offers. But not before.

Why? Because it’s easy to get distracted by the next new thing.

But the real money – the real freedom – is in turning what already works into a machine that runs without you.

So, what does that look like in practice?

Identify what’s working now. Track your best sources. Know which offers convert.

Build simple, repeatable processes around those wins. Document them. Automate steps where you can.

Measure what matters. Keep score. You can’t scale what you don’t track.

Make it boring. Yes – boring is good! Predictable, repeatable, and boring means you can trust it.

Only after your flywheel spins on its own, layer on new ideas.

That’s when you test a new channel. Try a new ad. Run a new promo. But only to accelerate growth, not to fix broken basics.

Which curve are you on now?

If you’re in the Spike, Chop, or Flatline, it’s time to get off the rollercoaster and start building your Ramp.

Systemize what works.

→ Make growth automatic.

→ Get the flywheel spinning.

→ Then, and only then, add fuel to the fire.

You’ll go from stuck to scaling and you’ll do it with less stress, less waste, and more joy.

Ready to get started? Let’s talk about how to build your Growth Flywheel – today.


About the Author(s)

Rod Solar

Rod Solar is Director of Practice Development at LiveseySolar, London, UK and a Scalable Business Advisor

More Articles by Rod Solar

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