More than one million people aged 40 and older were estimated to be living with glaucoma in the UK, with the total number of cases projected to rise to more than 1.6 million by 2060, according to a population-based modeling study published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology. The estimates were nearly 50% higher than previous reports, which the researchers attributed to underdiagnosis and demographic changes.
Glaucoma is a chronic eye disease in which progressive damage to the optic nerve leads to irreversible vision loss. The condition often develops without noticeable symptoms until later stages, when vision loss has already occurred. The researchers estimated that approximately 1.1 million people, or 3% of adults over 40 in the UK, currently had glaucoma. Among adults older than 85, the estimated prevalence rose to 11%. The burden was higher in certain ethnic groups, with an estimated prevalence of 4% among people of African descent. More than 500,000 people in the UK were believed to have undiagnosed disease.
The study projected that glaucoma cases would increase by 60% by 2060, compared with a 28% increase in the population aged over 40 during the same period. This disproportionate growth was attributed primarily to expansion of the population aged 75 and older. Although non-European groups represented approximately 6% of the UK population aged 65 and older, they were estimated to account for 8% of current glaucoma cases, reflecting higher disease risk in these populations.
To generate the estimates, the researchers used national demographic data on age, sex, and ethnicity for people aged 40 and older, stratified into 5-year age bands. Age- and sex-specific prevalence estimates for people of European ancestry were derived from the European Eye Epidemiology Consortium. Relative risk estimates from international studies were applied to adjust prevalence for African, Asian, and mixed or other ethnic groups. Future projections incorporated population forecasts from the UK Office for National Statistics.
Late diagnosis of glaucoma was associated with a higher risk of sight loss and higher costs of care. The researchers estimated that more than 40% of glaucoma patients in the UK experienced vision loss that could have been avoided with earlier detection and treatment, including topical therapies or surgery. The researchers reported that rising glaucoma prevalence would place increasing pressure on eye health services and called for expanded diagnostic capacity and specialist care.
The study was led by researchers from Moorfields Eye Hospital and University College London and was commissioned by Glaucoma UK.
